Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Razorbacks SOU @ ARK

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

0-0  |  Road

77
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Bud Walton Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

0-0  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
RAZORBACKS
0%
JAGUARS --
RAZORBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Arkansas)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 RazorbacksARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

15.9%

Razorbacks Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

SOU By 1-7 points

10.7%

SOU By 8-14 points

3.3%

ARK By 1-7 points

23.0%

ARK By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
68
SOUTHERN
78
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
62
SOUTHERN
85
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Razorbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Razorbacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 SOU @ ARK 77 - 109
Dec 9, 2020 SOU @ ARK 44 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.1% more
Arkansas: 5.0 vs Southern: 3.7
Assists (L5) +10.7% more
Arkansas: 11.6 vs Southern: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Arkansas: 43.8% vs Southern: 39.8%
Steals (L5) +30.3% more
Southern: 8.9 vs Arkansas: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 68.0 77
ARK Score 78.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 29.2 36.0 / 44.0
Assists 11.6 / 10.5 23.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.0 / 3.7 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 39.8 51.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 79.4 / 79.6 86.0 / 46.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 39.7 45.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.2 / 8.9 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 14.1 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
SOU
ARK
SOU
ML
68% 25-12
67% 22-11
81% 25-6
70% 21-9
ATS
70% 26-11
64% 21-12
81% 25-6
70% 21-9
TTL
57% 21-16
42% 14-19
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 47 minutes ago
Tyrese Haliburton Set to Make Emotional Return to Iowa State as …
kcci 1 day, 5 hours ago
Jason Kidd Nears ESPN Studio Analyst Role for NBA Countdown
theathleticuk 3 days ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days ago
Indiana Hoosiers Fans Invade Rutgers Homecoming as Hoosiers Roll…
app 4 days, 18 hours ago