Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Leopards @ Hawks LAF @ JOES

LAFAYETTE

LEOPARDSLAF

0-0  |  Road

76
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT JOSEPH'S

HAWKSJOES

0-0  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
LEOPARDS
100%
📊
HAWKS
0%
LEOPARDS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
LeopardsLAF (-3.5) 0 HawksJOES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Leopards Cover

30.9%

Hawks Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JOES -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)

LAF By 1-7 points

18.6%

LAF By 8-14 points

8.0%

JOES By 1-7 points

27.2%

JOES By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
69
LAFAYETTE
74
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Simulated Score
70
LAFAYETTE
75
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawks (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 LAF @ JOES 76 - 85
Nov 6, 2023 LAF @ JOES 60 - 81
Nov 14, 2022 LAF @ JOES 59 - 63
Dec 3, 2019 LAF @ JOES 94 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +67.7% more
Saint Joseph's: 8.2 vs Lafayette: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +67.2% more
Saint Joseph's: 6.1 vs Lafayette: 3.7
Rebounding (L5) +25.8% more
Saint Joseph's: 39.4 vs Lafayette: 31.3
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Saint Joseph's: 78.7% vs Lafayette: 73.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAF Score 69.0 76
JOES Score 74.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.1 / 35.1 24.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.1 / 17.3 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 6.1 / 3.7 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 36.6 / 46.5 45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 73.7 86.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 31.3 41.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.2 / 4.9 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 10.9 7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAF
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
JOES Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAF
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
JOES Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +1.0
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JOES
LAF
JOES
LAF
ML
51% 18-17
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
ATS
60% 21-14
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
TTL
54% 19-16
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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