MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
0-0 | Road
47
NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
0-0 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
LAKERS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Northwestern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)
MERC By 1-7 points
1.1%
MERC By 8-14 points
0.1%
NU By 1-7 points
5.8%
NU By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
56
MERCYHURST
Northwestern
78
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
60
MERCYHURST
Northwestern
78
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
MERC @ NU
47 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.9% more
Northwestern: 3.6
vs
Mercyhurst: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+13.5% more
Northwestern: 11.6
vs
Mercyhurst: 10.2
Rebounding (L5)
+12.4% more
Northwestern: 32.8
vs
Mercyhurst: 29.2
Steals (L5)
+16.0% more
Mercyhurst: 5.4
vs
Northwestern: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
56.0
47
NU Score
78.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 44.7
26.0 / 6.0
Assists
14.0 / 15.9
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.5
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 48.4
37.0 / 30.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 83.4
71.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 29.2
49.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.6 / 5.4
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 10.2
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
NU
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
NU
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
MERC
NU
MERC
ML
47%
16-18
59%
20-14
68%
23-11
79%
26-7
ATS
50%
17-17
62%
21-13
68%
23-11
79%
26-7
TTL
53%
18-16
53%
18-16
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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