SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
0-0 | Road
75
MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
0-0 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
JACKRABBITS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Dakota State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDST)
SDST By 1-7 points
25.3%
SDST By 8-14 points
26.2%
MRMK By 1-7 points
13.7%
MRMK By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
75
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Merrimack
67
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
68
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Merrimack
71
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jackrabbits
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jackrabbits (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u144.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
SDST @ MRMK
75 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+33.1% more
South Dakota State: 41.1
vs
Merrimack: 27.5
Turnovers (L5)
+32.4% more
South Dakota State: 10.5
vs
Merrimack: 7.1
Steals (L5)
+229.7% more
Merrimack: 11.0
vs
South Dakota State: 3.3
Blocks (L5)
+75.0% more
Merrimack: 3.6
vs
South Dakota State: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
75.0
75
MRMK Score
67.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 28.5
28.0 / 39.0
Assists
12.4 / 13.1
9.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.0
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.2 / 40.2
32.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 68.3
81.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
27.5 / 41.1
31.0 / 44.0
Steals
11.0 / 3.3
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
7.1 / 10.5
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
SDST
MRMK
SDST
ML
47%
16-18
75%
24-8
65%
22-12
53%
17-15
ATS
53%
18-16
78%
25-7
65%
22-12
53%
17-15
TTL
62%
21-13
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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