Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado @ West Virginia COLO @ WVU

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

3-6  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 12:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

3-6  |  Home

29
Key Game
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
@
Nate Gabriel
KEY GAME

Nate Gabriel

#93 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Damon Greaves None-None
Nate Gabriel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO
100%
📊
WEST VIRGINIA
0%
COLORADO --
WEST VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (West Virginia)
ColoradoCOLO (-3.5) 0 West VirginiaWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado Cover

9.9%

West Virginia Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WVU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

COLO By 1-6 points

5.3%

COLO By 7-13 points

2.8%

WVU By 1-6 points

10.0%

WVU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
23
COLORADO
41
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
27
COLORADO
31
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI West Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim West Virginia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI West Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim West Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 COLO @ WVU 22 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.8% more
West Virginia: 167.7 vs Colorado: 112.6
First Downs (L5) +19.9% more
West Virginia: 19.2 vs Colorado: 16.0
Total Yards (L5) +17.3% more
West Virginia: 344.2 vs Colorado: 293.4
Turnovers (L5) +75.5% more
Colorado: 2.5 vs West Virginia: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLO Score 23.0 22
WVU Score 41.0 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 16.0 21.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 167.7 / 112.6 167.0 / 51.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.41 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 344.2 / 293.4 369.0 / 350.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.5 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
WVU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
WVU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.7
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
COLO
WVU
COLO
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-4-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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