Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ Marshall JMU @ MRSH

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

7-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 12:00 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

4-4  |  Home

23
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Chason Clark
KEY GAME

Chason Clark

#10 | Linebacker
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Chason Clark None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
0%
📊
MARSHALL
100%
JAMES MADISON --
MARSHALL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (James Madison)
James MadisonJMU (-3.5) 0 MarshallMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

85.8%

Marshall Cover

14.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JMU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-6 points

12.2%

JMU By 7-13 points

18.5%

MRSH By 1-6 points

7.2%

MRSH By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
45
JAMES MADISON
30
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
24
JAMES MADISON
28
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Marshall Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI James Madison (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Sim Marshall (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MRSH @ JMU 17 - 45
Nov 8, 2025 JMU @ MRSH 35 - 23
Nov 30, 2024 MRSH @ JMU 35 - 33
Oct 19, 2023 JMU @ MRSH 20 - 9
Oct 22, 2022 MRSH @ JMU 26 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
James Madison: 0.6 vs Marshall: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
James Madison: 490.8 vs Marshall: 435.9
Turnovers (L5) +87.2% more
Marshall: 2.2 vs James Madison: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 45.0 35
MRSH Score 30.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 23.1 25.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 230.0 / 249.7 248.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.35 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 435.9 / 490.8 414.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
MRSH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
MRSH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
JMU
MRSH
JMU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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