Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Indiana @ Penn State IU @ PSU

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

9-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 12:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
A.J. Harris
KEY GAME

A.J. Harris

#4 | Defensive Back
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
A.J. Harris None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
0%
📊
PENN STATE
100%
INDIANA --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Indiana)
IndianaIU (-3.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Indiana Cover

98.7%

Penn State Cover

1.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

IU By 1-6 points

2.5%

IU By 7-13 points

6.6%

PSU By 1-6 points

0.9%

PSU By 7-13 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38
INDIANA
7
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
10
INDIANA
31
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Indiana Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Penn State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Indiana (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Penn State (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 IU @ PSU 27 - 24
Oct 28, 2023 IU @ PSU 24 - 33
Nov 5, 2022 PSU @ IU 45 - 14
Oct 2, 2021 IU @ PSU 0 - 24
Oct 24, 2020 PSU @ IU 35 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +49.1% more
Indiana: 253.7 vs Penn State: 129.1
Total Yards (L5) +44.6% more
Indiana: 497.3 vs Penn State: 275.6
First Downs (L5) +33.7% more
Indiana: 26.1 vs Penn State: 17.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Indiana: 0.6 vs Penn State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 38.0 27
PSU Score 7.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 26.1 17.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 129.1 / 253.7 117.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 275.6 / 497.3 336.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
PSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
IU
PSU
IU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 0 minutes ago
Red River Rivalry 2026: Essential Fan Guide for Sooners vs. Long…
news9 1 day, 6 hours ago
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 18 hours ago
Curt Cignetti Praises 'Extremely Impressive' Tape, Plans to 'Cag…
journalstar 2 days, 5 hours ago
Rutgers Crushed by Indiana 47-15 as Schiano Searches for Answers
si 3 days, 5 hours ago