Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bowling Green @ E Michigan BGSU @ EMU

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

3-6  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

2-7  |  Home

27
Key Game
Myles Bradley
KEY GAME

Myles Bradley

#23 | Defensive End
@
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
Player
Myles Bradley None-None
Rudy Kessinger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
100%
📊
E MICHIGAN
0%
BOWLING GREEN --
E MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Eastern Michigan)
Bowling GreenBGSU (-3.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

4.3%

E Michigan Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around EMU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

BGSU By 1-6 points

2.5%

BGSU By 7-13 points

1.1%

EMU By 1-6 points

5.9%

EMU By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7
BOWLING GREEN
31
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
24
BOWLING GREEN
27
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI E Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim E Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI E Michigan (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim E Michigan (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 BGSU @ EMU 21 - 27
Oct 23, 2021 EMU @ BGSU 55 - 24
Nov 21, 2017 BGSU @ EMU 31 - 34
Oct 1, 2016 EMU @ BGSU 28 - 25
Nov 23, 2013 BGSU @ EMU 58 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +23.7% more
Eastern Michigan: 360.2 vs Bowling Green: 291.3
First Downs (L5) +10.3% more
Eastern Michigan: 18.3 vs Bowling Green: 16.6
Turnovers (L5) +21.5% more
Bowling Green: 1.4 vs Eastern Michigan: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.2% more
Bowling Green: 145.2 vs Eastern Michigan: 123.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 7.0 21
EMU Score 31.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 16.6 25.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 123.1 / 145.2 175.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 360.2 / 291.3 385.0 / 259.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
BGSU
EMU
BGSU
ML
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
TTL
67% 4-2
100% 5-0
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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