Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Jax State @ UTEP JXST @ UTEP

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

5-3  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 3:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

2-6  |  Home

27
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
Carlos Arreola None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
0%
📊
UTEP
100%
JAX STATE --
UTEP --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Jacksonville State)
Jax StateJXST (-3.5) 0 UTEPUTEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

97.3%

UTEP Cover

2.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JXST -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

JXST By 1-6 points

4.2%

JXST By 7-13 points

9.6%

UTEP By 1-6 points

1.6%

UTEP By 7-13 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
30
JACKSONVILLE STATE
3
UTEP
Simulated Score
24
JACKSONVILLE STATE
27
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jax State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTEP Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jax State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
C
Sim UTEP (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 JXST @ UTEP 30 - 27
Aug 26, 2023 UTEP @ JXST 14 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.7% more
Jacksonville State: 236.9 vs UTEP: 121.4
First Downs (L5) +25.2% more
Jacksonville State: 21.5 vs UTEP: 16.1
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Jacksonville State: 404.2 vs UTEP: 313.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Jacksonville State: 0.4 vs UTEP: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 30.0 30
UTEP Score 3.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 21.5 20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 121.4 / 236.9 126.0 / 275.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.4 0.15 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 313.3 / 404.2 370.0 / 456.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
JXST
UTEP
JXST
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 6-0
ATS
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
50% 3-3
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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