Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulsa @ FAU TLSA @ FAU

TULSA

TULSATLSA

2-6  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 3:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

3-5  |  Home

40
Key Game
Dax Collins
KEY GAME

Dax Collins

#9 | Linebacker
@
Derrick Rogers
KEY GAME

Derrick Rogers

#3 | Defensive Back
Player
Dax Collins None-None
Derrick Rogers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
0%
📊
FAU
100%
TULSA --
FAU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Tulsa)
TulsaTLSA (-3.5) 0 FAUFAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulsa Cover

78.4%

FAU Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TLSA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

TLSA By 1-6 points

14.7%

TLSA By 7-13 points

19.7%

FAU By 1-6 points

10.0%

FAU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
38
TULSA
27
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
24
TULSA
27
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tulsa Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim FAU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tulsa (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim FAU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 TLSA @ FAU 21 - 40
Nov 30, 2024 FAU @ TLSA 63 - 16
Oct 7, 2023 TLSA @ FAU 17 - 20
Sep 5, 2015 FAU @ TLSA 44 - 47
Sep 13, 2014 TLSA @ FAU 21 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.5% more
Tulsa: 132.8 vs Florida Atlantic: 87.0
Turnovers (L5) +31.8% more
Florida Atlantic: 2.0 vs Tulsa: 1.5
First Downs (L5) +10.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 23.3 vs Tulsa: 21.2
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Florida Atlantic: 418.8 vs Tulsa: 382.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 38.0 21
FAU Score 27.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 21.2 15.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 87.0 / 132.8 109.0 / 196.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 418.8 / 382.0 420.0 / 431.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
TLSA
FAU
TLSA
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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