Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ Iowa ORE @ IOWA

OREGON

OREGONORE

7-1  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 3:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

6-2  |  Home

16
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Matayo Uiagalelei

#10 | Linebacker
@
Deshaun Lee
KEY GAME

Deshaun Lee

#8 | Defensive Back
Player
Matayo Uiagalelei None-None
Deshaun Lee None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
0%
📊
IOWA
100%
OREGON --
IOWA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Oregon)
OregonORE (-3.5) 0 IowaIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

76.2%

Iowa Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ORE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

ORE By 1-6 points

15.3%

ORE By 7-13 points

19.7%

IOWA By 1-6 points

10.7%

IOWA By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
OREGON
14
IOWA
Simulated Score
17
OREGON
31
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oregon (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Iowa (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 ORE @ IOWA 18 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.3% more
Oregon: 1.0 vs Iowa: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +34.0% more
Oregon: 458.1 vs Iowa: 302.4
First Downs (L5) +30.1% more
Oregon: 21.4 vs Iowa: 15.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.4% more
Oregon: 234.0 vs Iowa: 174.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 24.0 18
IOWA Score 14.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.0 / 21.4 18.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 174.5 / 234.0 101.0 / 261.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 302.4 / 458.1 239.0 / 373.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
IOWA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
IOWA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
ORE
IOWA
ORE
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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