Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ UConn DUKE @ CONN

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

5-3  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 3:30 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCONN

UCONNCONN

6-3  |  Home

37
Key Game
Jon Morris
KEY GAME

Jon Morris

#19 | Linebacker
@
Kylish Hicks
KEY GAME

Kylish Hicks

#18 | Linebacker
Player
Jon Morris None-None
Kylish Hicks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
0%
📊
UCONN
100%
DUKE --
UCONN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DukeDUKE (-3.5) 0 UConnCONN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

41.5%

UConn Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

DUKE By 1-6 points

17.0%

DUKE By 7-13 points

17.5%

CONN By 1-6 points

15.3%

CONN By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
31
DUKE
28
UCONN
Simulated Score
13
DUKE
31
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Duke Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UConn Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UConn (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Sim UConn (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u63.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Sim u63.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 DUKE @ CONN 34 - 37
Sep 14, 2024 CONN @ DUKE 21 - 26
Sep 23, 2023 DUKE @ CONN 41 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.0% more
Duke: 0.5 vs UConn: 0.1
First Downs (L5) +13.9% more
Duke: 23.0 vs UConn: 19.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
UConn: 0.5 vs Duke: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.4% more
UConn: 124.5 vs Duke: 114.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 31.0 34
CONN Score 28.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 23.0 25.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 124.5 / 114.8 156.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 424.0 / 443.1 472.0 / 390.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
CONN
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
DUKE
CONN
DUKE
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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