IOWA STATE
IOWA STATEISU
5-4 | Road
20
TCU
TCUTCU
6-2 | Home
17
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jordyn Bailey
#17 | Wide Receiver@
KEY GAME
Nate McCashland
#99 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jordyn Bailey | None-None |
| Nate McCashland | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
100%
TCU
0%
IOWA STATE
--
TCU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
ISU By 1-6 points
8.6%
ISU By 7-13 points
5.3%
TCU By 1-6 points
13.5%
TCU By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa State
21
IOWA STATE
TCU
34
TCU
Simulated Score
Iowa State
24
IOWA STATE
TCU
28
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
TCU
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
TCU
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
TCU (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim
TCU (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u58.5
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim
u58.5
Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
ISU @ TCU
20 - 17
Oct 7, 2023
TCU @ ISU
14 - 27
Nov 26, 2022
ISU @ TCU
14 - 62
Nov 26, 2021
TCU @ ISU
14 - 48
Sep 26, 2020
ISU @ TCU
37 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+16.0% more
TCU: 0.5
vs
Iowa State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5)
+35.9% more
Iowa State: 1.6
vs
TCU: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5)
+31.7% more
Iowa State: 169.7
vs
TCU: 115.9
First Downs (L5)
+9.8% more
Iowa State: 22.4
vs
TCU: 20.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ISU Score
21.0
20
TCU Score
34.0
17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.2 / 22.4
30.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards
115.9 / 169.7
113.0 / 161.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.3
0.5 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards
392.8 / 411.3
432.0 / 272.0
Turnovers
1.0 / 1.6
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 12.4
ATS +/-: +5.6
TCU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 12.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
Advantage
2-2-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 12.4
ATS +/-: +5.6
TCU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 12.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +7.1
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
ISU
TCU
ISU
ML
60%
3-2
100%
5-0
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
ATS
40%
2-3
75%
3-1-1
40%
2-3
50%
2-2-1
TTL
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
Contextual Game News
