Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kennesaw St @ New Mexico St KENN @ NMSU

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

6-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-5  |  Home

21
Key Game
Ugonna Nwoha
KEY GAME

Ugonna Nwoha

#55 | Defensive Lineman
@
David Barker
KEY GAME

David Barker

#92 | Place kicker
Player
Ugonna Nwoha None-None
David Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENNESAW ST
0%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
100%
KENNESAW ST --
NEW MEXICO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Kennesaw State)
Kennesaw StKENN (-3.5) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kennesaw St Cover

98.7%

New Mexico St Cover

1.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KENN -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

KENN By 1-6 points

2.5%

KENN By 7-13 points

6.6%

NMSU By 1-6 points

0.9%

NMSU By 7-13 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38
KENNESAW STATE
7
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
20
KENNESAW STATE
27
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim New Mexico St (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 KENN @ NMSU 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.7% more
Kennesaw State: 159.5 vs New Mexico State: 83.4
Total Yards (L5) +25.8% more
Kennesaw State: 376.7 vs New Mexico State: 279.4
Turnovers (L5) +117.0% more
New Mexico State: 1.9 vs Kennesaw State: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 38.0 24
NMSU Score 7.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 19.3 26.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 83.4 / 159.5 75.0 / 208.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 279.4 / 376.7 316.0 / 427.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
NMSU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
KENN
NMSU
KENN
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
83% 5-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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