Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Auburn @ Vanderbilt AUB @ VAN

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

4-5  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:00 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

7-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
@
Carson Lawrence
KEY GAME

Carson Lawrence

#3 | Safety
Player
Hudson Kaak None-None
Carson Lawrence None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUBURN
100%
📊
VANDERBILT
0%
AUBURN --
VANDERBILT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Vanderbilt)
AuburnAUB (-3.5) 0 VanderbiltVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Auburn Cover

15.9%

Vanderbilt Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

AUB By 1-6 points

7.9%

AUB By 7-13 points

4.7%

VAN By 1-6 points

12.9%

VAN By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
10
AUBURN
24
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
17
AUBURN
38
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Vanderbilt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Vanderbilt (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 34.0
C
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 VAN @ AUB 15 - 21
Nov 8, 2025 AUB @ VAN 38 - 45
Nov 2, 2024 VAN @ AUB 17 - 7
Nov 4, 2023 AUB @ VAN 31 - 15
Nov 5, 2016 VAN @ AUB 16 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +27.1% more
Vanderbilt: 388.1 vs Auburn: 305.3
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Vanderbilt: 21.0 vs Auburn: 18.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.5 vs Auburn: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +24.4% more
Auburn: 1.2 vs Vanderbilt: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 10.0 38
VAN Score 24.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 18.5 30.0 / 34.0
Rushing Yards 140.7 / 150.8 167.0 / 210.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.58 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 388.1 / 305.3 544.0 / 563.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
AUB
VAN
AUB
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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