Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ Virginia WAKE @ UVA

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

5-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

8-1  |  Home

9
Key Game
Connor Calvert
KEY GAME

Connor Calvert

#90 | Place kicker
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Connor Calvert None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
100%
📊
VIRGINIA
0%
WAKE FOREST --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
17.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Virginia)
Wake ForestWAKE (-3.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

21.6%

Virginia Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

WAKE By 1-6 points

10.0%

WAKE By 7-13 points

6.6%

UVA By 1-6 points

14.7%

UVA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WAKE FOREST
14
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
31
WAKE FOREST
24
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Virginia Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wake Forest Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Virginia (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim Wake Forest (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 17.0
C
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 WAKE @ UVA 16 - 9
Sep 7, 2024 UVA @ WAKE 31 - 30
Sep 24, 2021 WAKE @ UVA 37 - 17
Oct 17, 2020 UVA @ WAKE 23 - 40
Nov 5, 2016 UVA @ WAKE 20 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.9% more
Virginia: 148.3 vs Wake Forest: 116.9
Total Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Virginia: 376.1 vs Wake Forest: 330.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs Wake Forest: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +8.7% more
Virginia: 19.7 vs Wake Forest: 18.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 3.0 16
UVA Score 14.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 18.1 14.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 148.3 / 116.9 163.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.21 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 376.1 / 330.5 327.0 / 203.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 2.1 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
WAKE
UVA
WAKE
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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