Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida St @ Clemson FSU @ CLEM

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

4-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

3-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Darryll Desir
KEY GAME

Darryll Desir

#1 | Defensive Lineman
@
Nolan Hauser
KEY GAME

Nolan Hauser

#81 | Place kicker
Player
Darryll Desir None-None
Nolan Hauser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA ST
0%
📊
CLEMSON
100%
FLORIDA ST --
CLEMSON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Florida StFSU (-3.5) 0 ClemsonCLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida St Cover

47.2%

Clemson Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CLEM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)

FSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

FSU By 7-13 points

16.1%

CLEM By 1-6 points

16.1%

CLEM By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
28
FLORIDA STATE
27
CLEMSON
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA STATE
27
CLEMSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Florida St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Clemson Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Clemson (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Sim Clemson (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 FSU @ CLEM 10 - 24
Oct 5, 2024 CLEM @ FSU 29 - 13
Sep 23, 2023 FSU @ CLEM 31 - 24
Oct 15, 2022 CLEM @ FSU 34 - 28
Oct 30, 2021 FSU @ CLEM 20 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.9% more
Florida State: 176.0 vs Clemson: 134.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Florida State: 0.5 vs Clemson: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +23.3% more
Clemson: 1.4 vs Florida State: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +10.8% more
Clemson: 24.2 vs Florida State: 21.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 28.0 10
CLEM Score 27.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 21.9 16.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 134.0 / 176.0 98.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.27 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 467.9 / 447.8 319.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
CLEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
CLEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
FSU
CLEM
FSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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