Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida @ Kentucky FLA @ UK

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

3-5  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:30 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

3-5  |  Home

38
Key Game
Cam Dooley
KEY GAME

Cam Dooley

#10 | Safety
@
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Cam Dooley None-None
Jacob Kauwe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA
0%
📊
KENTUCKY
100%
FLORIDA --
KENTUCKY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Florida)
FloridaFLA (-3.5) 0 KentuckyUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida Cover

84.1%

Kentucky Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FLA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

FLA By 1-6 points

12.9%

FLA By 7-13 points

19.0%

UK By 1-6 points

7.9%

UK By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
FLORIDA
7
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA
27
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Florida Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kentucky Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Florida (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Kentucky (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 28.0
C
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 FLA @ UK 7 - 38
Oct 19, 2024 UK @ FLA 20 - 48
Sep 30, 2023 FLA @ UK 14 - 33
Sep 10, 2022 UK @ FLA 26 - 16
Oct 2, 2021 FLA @ UK 13 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.6% more
Florida: 127.4 vs Kentucky: 116.4
Turnovers (L5) +51.6% more
Kentucky: 1.9 vs Florida: 1.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Kentucky: 0.4 vs Florida: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +9.5% more
Kentucky: 20.2 vs Florida: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 21.0 7
UK Score 7.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 18.4 24.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 116.4 / 127.4 233.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 337.6 / 347.1 401.0 / 247.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.2 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UK
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
FLA
UK
FLA
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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