Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nevada @ Utah State NEV @ USU

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-7  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:30 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

4-4  |  Home

51
Key Game
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
@
Kahanu Davis
KEY GAME

Kahanu Davis

#7 | Wide Receiver
Player
Joe McFadden None-None
Kahanu Davis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
100%
📊
UTAH STATE
0%
NEVADA --
UTAH STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Utah State)
NevadaNEV (-3.5) 0 Utah StateUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

1.3%

Utah State Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

NEV By 1-6 points

0.9%

NEV By 7-13 points

0.3%

USU By 1-6 points

2.5%

USU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
NEVADA
38
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
27
NEVADA
34
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utah State (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Utah State (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 NEV @ USU 14 - 51
Nov 11, 2023 NEV @ USU 24 - 41
Nov 5, 2020 USU @ NEV 9 - 34
Oct 19, 2019 NEV @ USU 10 - 36
Nov 19, 2016 USU @ NEV 37 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.5% more
Utah State: 157.8 vs Nevada: 103.5
Total Yards (L5) +47.7% more
Utah State: 403.0 vs Nevada: 272.9
First Downs (L5) +18.3% more
Utah State: 18.8 vs Nevada: 15.9
Turnovers (L5) +65.6% more
Nevada: 2.8 vs Utah State: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 7.0 14
USU Score 38.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 15.9 23.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 157.8 / 103.5 145.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 403.0 / 272.9 522.0 / 242.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.8 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
USU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
NEV
USU
NEV
ML
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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