Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nebraska @ UCLA NEB @ UCLA

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

6-3  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

3-5  |  Home

21
Key Game
Anthony Jones Jr.
KEY GAME

Anthony Jones Jr.

#15 | Defensive Lineman
@
Mateen Bhaghani
KEY GAME

Mateen Bhaghani

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Anthony Jones Jr. None-None
Mateen Bhaghani None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEBRASKA
100%
📊
UCLA
0%
NEBRASKA --
UCLA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (UCLA)
NebraskaNEB (-3.5) 0 UCLAUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nebraska Cover

38.8%

UCLA Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCLA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

NEB By 1-6 points

14.7%

NEB By 7-13 points

12.1%

UCLA By 1-6 points

17.0%

UCLA By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEBRASKA
24
UCLA
Simulated Score
24
NEBRASKA
27
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UCLA Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UCLA Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UCLA (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim UCLA (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 NEB @ UCLA 28 - 21
Nov 2, 2024 UCLA @ NEB 27 - 20
Dec 26, 2015 UCLA @ NEB 29 - 37
Sep 14, 2013 UCLA @ NEB 41 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.6% more
UCLA: 1.8 vs Nebraska: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.5% more
UCLA: 158.0 vs Nebraska: 143.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Nebraska: 0.4 vs UCLA: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +9.1% more
Nebraska: 19.2 vs UCLA: 17.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEB Score 20.0 28
UCLA Score 24.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 19.2 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 158.0 / 143.0 157.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 329.6 / 314.3 348.0 / 361.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEB
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
UCLA
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEB
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NEB
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.9
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
NEB
UCLA
NEB
ML
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-3-1
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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