UNLV
UNLVUNLV
6-2 | Road
42
COLORADO STATE
COLORADO STCSU
2-6 | Home
10
Key Game
KEY GAME
Andre Porter
#42 | Defensive End@
KEY GAME
D'Angelo Hagans Jr.
#5 | Cornerback| Player | |
|---|---|
| Andre Porter | None-None |
| D'Angelo Hagans Jr. | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
0%
COLORADO ST
100%
UNLV
--
COLORADO ST
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
83.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UNLV)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNLV -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)
UNLV By 1-6 points
16.5%
UNLV By 7-13 points
19.3%
CSU By 1-6 points
12.9%
CSU By 7-13 points
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UNLV
45
UNLV
Colorado State
38
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
UNLV
24
UNLV
Colorado State
27
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
UNLV
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Colorado St
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
UNLV (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim
Colorado St (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o60.5
Loss
Proj Total: 83.0
C
Sim
u60.5
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
UNLV @ CSU
42 - 10
Oct 21, 2023
CSU @ UNLV
23 - 25
Nov 2, 2019
UNLV @ CSU
17 - 37
Oct 22, 2016
CSU @ UNLV
42 - 23
Nov 14, 2015
UNLV @ CSU
35 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5)
+31.4% more
UNLV: 462.0
vs
Colorado State: 316.9
Rushing Yards (L5)
+29.6% more
UNLV: 174.9
vs
Colorado State: 123.2
First Downs (L5)
+26.6% more
UNLV: 22.9
vs
Colorado State: 16.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score
45.0
42
CSU Score
38.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
16.8 / 22.9
16.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards
123.2 / 174.9
103.0 / 320.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.08 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards
316.9 / 462.0
292.0 / 571.0
Turnovers
1.5 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.4
CSU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.4
CSU
2-2-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.3
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +20.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
UNLV
CSU
UNLV
ML
100%
4-0
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
ATS
75%
3-1
20%
1-4
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
TTL
0%
0-4
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
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