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SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

7-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 11:00 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

6-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
@
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina
KEY GAME

Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina

#51 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Tashi Dorje None-None
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
0%
📊
HAWAI'I
100%
SAN DIEGO ST --
HAWAI'I --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (San Diego State)
San Diego StSDSU (-3.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

95.7%

Hawai'i Cover

4.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SDSU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SDSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

SDSU By 7-13 points

12.1%

HAW By 1-6 points

2.5%

HAW By 7-13 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
31
SAN DIEGO STATE
7
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
17
SAN DIEGO STATE
31
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI San Diego St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Hawai'i Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI San Diego St (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim Hawai'i (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 SDSU @ HAW 6 - 38
Oct 5, 2024 HAW @ SDSU 24 - 27
Oct 14, 2023 SDSU @ HAW 41 - 34
Oct 8, 2022 HAW @ SDSU 14 - 16
Nov 6, 2021 SDSU @ HAW 17 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.3% more
San Diego State: 197.5 vs Hawai'i: 108.0
Total Yards (L5) +22.8% more
Hawai'i: 464.5 vs San Diego State: 378.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Hawai'i: 0.5 vs San Diego State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +19.1% more
Hawai'i: 22.0 vs San Diego State: 18.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 31.0 6
HAW Score 7.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 18.5 20.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 108.0 / 197.5 130.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 464.5 / 378.2 386.0 / 267.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
SDSU
HAW
SDSU
ML
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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