Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Illinois @ Toledo NIU @ TOL

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

2-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

4-4  |  Home

42
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Emilio Duran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
100%
📊
TOLEDO
0%
N ILLINOIS --
TOLEDO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
20.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Toledo)
N IllinoisNIU (-3.5) 0 ToledoTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

7.7%

Toledo Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TOL -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

NIU By 1-6 points

4.2%

NIU By 7-13 points

2.1%

TOL By 1-6 points

8.6%

TOL By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
20
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
20
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
27
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Toledo Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
B
Sim Toledo (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 20.0
B
Sim o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 5, 2025 NIU @ TOL 3 - 42
Oct 19, 2024 TOL @ NIU 13 - 6
Sep 30, 2023 NIU @ TOL 33 - 35
Oct 8, 2022 TOL @ NIU 52 - 32
Oct 9, 2021 NIU @ TOL 22 - 20
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +43.7% more
Toledo: 21.7 vs Northern Illinois: 15.1
Total Yards (L5) +35.1% more
Toledo: 418.0 vs Northern Illinois: 309.4
Turnovers (L5) +46.8% more
Northern Illinois: 1.7 vs Toledo: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.7% more
Northern Illinois: 206.1 vs Toledo: 147.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 0.0 3
TOL Score 20.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 15.1 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 147.0 / 206.1 134.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 418.0 / 309.4 443.0 / 203.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
NIU
TOL
NIU
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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