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UTSA

UTSAUTSA

4-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

6-2  |  Home

55
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
Luke Goater None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
100%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
UTSA --
SOUTH FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (South Florida)
UTSAUTSA (-3.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

0.9%

South Florida Cover

99.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

UTSA By 1-6 points

0.6%

UTSA By 7-13 points

0.2%

USF By 1-6 points

1.9%

USF By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
23
UTSA
56
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
20
UTSA
34
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim South Florida Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
B
Sim South Florida (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o67.5 Win
Proj Total: 79.0
B
Sim u67.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 UTSA @ USF 23 - 55
Nov 17, 2023 USF @ UTSA 21 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.6% more
South Florida: 272.0 vs UTSA: 166.2
Turnovers (L5) +30.2% more
South Florida: 1.4 vs UTSA: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +29.4% more
South Florida: 27.4 vs UTSA: 21.2
Total Yards (L5) +26.3% more
South Florida: 535.4 vs UTSA: 423.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 23.0 23
USF Score 56.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.4 / 21.2 20.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 272.0 / 166.2 238.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.34 / 0.66
Total Yards 535.4 / 423.8 471.0 / 381.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
USF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
UTSA
USF
UTSA
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
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Thursday Night College Football: UTSA vs. South Florida Headline…
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