Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / GA Southern @ App State GASO @ APP

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

3-5  |  Road

25
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

4-4  |  Home

23
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Juan Berchal
KEY GAME

Juan Berchal

#0 | Defensive Back
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Juan Berchal None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
0%
📊
APP STATE
100%
GA SOUTHERN --
APP STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Georgia Southern)
GA SouthernGASO (-3.5) 0 App StateAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

69.1%

App State Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GASO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GASO By 1-6 points

16.5%

GASO By 7-13 points

19.3%

APP By 1-6 points

12.9%

APP By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
34
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
27
APP STATE
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
27
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI GA Southern Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim App State Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI GA Southern (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim App State (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Sim u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 GASO @ APP 29 - 10
Nov 6, 2025 GASO @ APP 25 - 23
Nov 30, 2024 APP @ GASO 20 - 29
Nov 25, 2023 GASO @ APP 27 - 55
Nov 26, 2022 APP @ GASO 48 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.0% more
Georgia Southern: 138.5 vs App State: 113.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Georgia Southern: 0.5 vs App State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +72.0% more
App State: 1.5 vs Georgia Southern: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 34.0 25
APP Score 27.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 22.2 23.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 113.5 / 138.5 77.0 / 142.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 390.4 / 364.8 425.0 / 494.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
APP
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
GASO
APP
GASO
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
0% 0-4
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-5
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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