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COLGATE

RAIDERSCOLG

0-0  |  Road

69
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

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80
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
RAIDERS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Michigan State)
RaidersCOLG (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

42.1%

Spartans Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

COLG By 1-7 points

23.0%

COLG By 8-14 points

12.2%

MSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

MSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
COLGATE
72
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
65
COLGATE
78
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 COLG @ MSU 69 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +80.2% more
Michigan State: 4.6 vs Colgate: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +17.7% more
Michigan State: 38.0 vs Colgate: 32.3
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Michigan State: 77.3% vs Colgate: 72.5%
Steals (L5) +47.9% more
Colgate: 7.7 vs Michigan State: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLG Score 70.0 69
MSU Score 72.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 35.6 29.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.8 / 13.9 18.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.6 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 47.7 42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 72.5 65.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 32.3 47.0 / 25.0
Steals 4.0 / 7.7 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 11.7 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.9
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
COLG
MSU
COLG
ML
71% 25-10
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
ATS
71% 25-10
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
70% 23-10
TTL
49% 17-18
78% 25-7
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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