Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Foxes @ Musketeers MRST @ XAV

MARIST

RED FOXESMRST

0-0  |  Road

62
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:15 PM ET
Cintas Center
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

0-0  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
0%
📊
MUSKETEERS
100%
RED FOXES --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red FoxesMRST (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Foxes Cover

24.2%

Musketeers Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around XAV +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

MRST By 1-7 points

26.2%

MRST By 8-14 points

25.3%

XAV By 1-7 points

15.3%

XAV By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
75
MARIST
68
XAVIER
Simulated Score
65
MARIST
78
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Foxes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Musketeers (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 MRST @ XAV 62 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +71.4% more
Marist: 3.6 vs Xavier: 1.0
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
Marist: 10.9 vs Xavier: 7.5
Rebounding (L5) +21.6% more
Marist: 37.8 vs Xavier: 29.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
Marist: 82.9% vs Xavier: 75.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRST Score 75.0 62
XAV Score 68.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.9 / 23.0 27.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.8 / 12.6 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.0 / 3.6 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 35.5 34.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 82.9 72.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 37.8 31.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.2 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.5 / 10.9 11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -3.0
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
MRST
XAV
MRST
ML
58% 19-14
55% 17-14
72% 23-9
61% 19-12
ATS
73% 24-9
74% 23-8
72% 23-9
61% 19-12
TTL
39% 13-20
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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