UTAH
JAZZUTAH
2-4 | Road
105
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
3-4 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
0%
CELTICS
100%
JAZZ
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
UTAH By 1-7 points
26.2%
UTAH By 8-14 points
25.3%
BOS By 1-7 points
15.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
111
UTAH
Boston
104
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Utah
108
UTAH
Boston
112
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jazz
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 30, 2025
BOS @ UTAH
129 - 119
Nov 3, 2025
UTAH @ BOS
105 - 103
Mar 21, 2025
BOS @ UTAH
121 - 99
Mar 10, 2025
UTAH @ BOS
108 - 114
Mar 12, 2024
BOS @ UTAH
123 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+27.2% more
Utah: 14.7
vs
Boston: 10.7
Turnovers (L5)
+20.4% more
Utah: 6.9
vs
Boston: 5.5
Rebounding (L5)
+18.2% more
Utah: 21.8
vs
Boston: 17.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Utah: 49.0%
vs
Boston: 42.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
111.0
105
BOS Score
104.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.5 / 32.3
22.0 / 29.0
Assists
10.7 / 14.7
21.0 / 23.0
Blocks
1.6 / 1.7
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 49.0
42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
43.7 / 44.0
82.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
17.8 / 21.8
36.0 / 55.0
Steals
4.2 / 4.0
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
5.5 / 6.9
10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
UTAH
BOS
UTAH
ML
57%
61-46
60%
96-63
53%
47-41
48%
40-43
ATS
59%
61-43-3
68%
108-51
53%
47-41
48%
40-43
TTL
56%
60-47
75%
119-39-1
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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