DETROIT
PISTONSDET
4-2 | Road
114
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
3-4 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
PISTONS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
20.1%
DET By 8-14 points
27.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
8.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
124
DETROIT
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Detroit
103
DETROIT
Memphis
108
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
MEM @ DET
110 - 126
Nov 3, 2025
DET @ MEM
114 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
DET @ MEM
128 - 112
Apr 5, 2025
MEM @ DET
109 - 103
Nov 27, 2024
DET @ MEM
111 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+75.4% more
Detroit: 3.2
vs
Memphis: 0.8
Steals (L5)
+41.6% more
Detroit: 5.1
vs
Memphis: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+24.6% more
Detroit: 15.1
vs
Memphis: 11.4
Rebounding (L5)
+22.6% more
Detroit: 24.6
vs
Memphis: 19.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
124.0
114
MEM Score
112.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.4 / 33.4
34.0 / 32.0
Assists
11.4 / 15.1
25.0 / 23.0
Blocks
0.8 / 3.2
5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 46.5
40.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
39.2 / 36.5
88.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
19.1 / 24.6
49.0 / 43.0
Steals
3.0 / 5.1
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
6.8 / 5.9
20.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DET
MEM
DET
ML
57%
59-44
55%
64-53
50%
41-41
49%
47-49
ATS
63%
65-38
53%
60-54-3
50%
41-41
49%
47-49
TTL
70%
71-31-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
96-0
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