Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Nuggets SAC @ DEN

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

2-4  |  Road

124
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

3-2  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
KINGS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

38.2%

Nuggets Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

SAC By 1-7 points

27.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

20.1%

DEN By 1-7 points

21.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
117
SACRAMENTO
114
DENVER
Simulated Score
113
SACRAMENTO
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+11) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.0 Loss
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim u237.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 136 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 SAC @ DEN 128 - 123
Nov 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 122 - 108
Nov 3, 2025 SAC @ DEN 124 - 130
Apr 9, 2025 DEN @ SAC 124 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +64.6% more
Sacramento: 4.4 vs Denver: 1.6
Assists (L5) +63.9% more
Sacramento: 14.6 vs Denver: 5.3
Rebounding (L5) +58.4% more
Sacramento: 20.3 vs Denver: 8.5
Turnovers (L5) +50.2% more
Sacramento: 6.1 vs Denver: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 117.0 124
DEN Score 114.0 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 36.8 32.0 / 33.0
Assists 5.3 / 14.6 33.0 / 27.0
Blocks 0.8 / 1.4 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 50.2 52.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 16.5 / 43.6 75.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 8.5 / 20.3 40.0 / 47.0
Steals 1.6 / 4.4 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 3.1 / 6.1 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SAC
DEN
SAC
ML
54% 57-48
55% 55-45
55% 47-39
61% 50-32
ATS
63% 65-38-2
54% 52-45-3
55% 47-39
61% 50-32
TTL
54% 56-48-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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