Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Cardinals UL @ BALL

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

0-0  |  Road

64
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

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75
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Ball State)
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

18.4%

Cardinals Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BALL -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

UL By 1-7 points

12.2%

UL By 8-14 points

4.0%

BALL By 1-7 points

24.3%

BALL By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
LOUISIANA
75
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
69
LOUISIANA
73
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 UL @ BALL 64 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +31.0% more
Ball State: 36.6 vs Louisiana: 28.0
Assists (L5) +26.1% more
Ball State: 10.9 vs Louisiana: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5) +13.8%
Ball State: 77.3% vs Louisiana: 63.5%
Turnovers (L5) +12.9% more
Ball State: 11.5 vs Louisiana: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 66.0 64
BALL Score 75.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.6 / 25.7 53.0 / 32.0
Assists 10.9 / 8.7 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 37.8 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 63.5 68.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 28.0 34.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.1 / 7.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 10.2 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
UL
BALL
UL
ML
43% 13-17
66% 21-11
62% 18-11
63% 19-11
ATS
67% 20-10
66% 21-11
62% 18-11
63% 19-11
TTL
50% 15-15
62% 20-12
100% 29-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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