Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Rockets USA @ TOL

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

0-0  |  Road

76
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Savage Arena
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

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74
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
JAGUARS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (South Alabama)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 RocketsTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

54.0%

Rockets Cover

46.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

USA By 1-7 points

26.2%

USA By 8-14 points

16.9%

TOL By 1-7 points

24.3%

TOL By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SOUTH ALABAMA
78
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
77
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 USA @ TOL 76 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.4% more
South Alabama: 9.3 vs Toledo: 5.2
Rebounding (L5) +15.4% more
South Alabama: 36.7 vs Toledo: 31.0
Blocks (L5) +19.0% more
Toledo: 2.4 vs South Alabama: 2.0
Assists (L5) +10.6% more
Toledo: 11.8 vs South Alabama: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 79.0 76
TOL Score 78.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 24.8 45.0 / 37.0
Assists 11.8 / 10.6 21.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.0 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 44.2 47.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 75.0 78.0 / 38.0
Rebounding 31.0 / 36.7 26.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.2 / 9.3 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 9.4 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
TOL
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
USA
TOL
USA
ML
48% 16-17
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
57% 17-13
ATS
48% 16-17
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
57% 17-13
TTL
64% 21-12
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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