Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vaqueros @ Bears RGV @ BAY

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

0-0  |  Road

81
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Foster Pavilion
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

0-0  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
VAQUEROS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Baylor)
VaquerosRGV (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vaqueros Cover

18.4%

Bears Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

RGV By 1-7 points

12.2%

RGV By 8-14 points

4.0%

BAY By 1-7 points

24.3%

BAY By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
75
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
55
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
85
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 RGV @ BAY 81 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.0% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 3.7 vs Baylor: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +50.2% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 14.7 vs Baylor: 7.3
Assists (L5) +38.2% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 18.1 vs Baylor: 11.2
Steals (L5) +29.8% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 8.2 vs Baylor: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RGV Score 66.0 81
BAY Score 75.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.4 / 37.8 37.0 / 41.0
Assists 11.2 / 18.1 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 45.3 49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 77.3 66.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 35.3 42.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 7.3 / 14.7 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
RGV
BAY
RGV
ML
58% 19-14
53% 16-14
53% 17-15
54% 15-13
ATS
58% 19-14
53% 16-14
53% 17-15
54% 15-13
TTL
45% 15-18
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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