PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
0-0 | Road
71
GRAND CANYON
LOPESGCU
0-0 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
LOPES
0%
MASTODONS
--
LOPES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Grand Canyon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)
PFW By 1-7 points
9.3%
PFW By 8-14 points
2.7%
GCU By 1-7 points
21.6%
GCU By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
70
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Grand Canyon
81
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
65
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Grand Canyon
78
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lopes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lopes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lopes (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Lopes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
PFW @ GCU
71 - 90
Nov 30, 2019
PFW @ GCU
71 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+172.5% more
Grand Canyon: 5.9
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 2.2
Rebounding (L5)
+9.5% more
Grand Canyon: 33.8
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 30.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
Grand Canyon: 72.4%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 69.1%
Steals (L5)
+21.4% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 7.8
vs
Grand Canyon: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
70.0
71
GCU Score
81.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.3 / 32.9
46.0 / 27.0
Assists
10.0 / 10.6
21.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.9 / 2.2
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 42.2
56.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 69.1
75.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 30.9
39.0 / 27.0
Steals
6.1 / 7.8
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 12.7
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
GCU
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
GCU
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
PFW
GCU
PFW
ML
66%
21-11
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
74%
23-8
ATS
72%
23-9
62%
20-12
68%
21-10
74%
23-8
TTL
44%
14-18
59%
19-13
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
