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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

0-0  |  Road

78
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 9:00 PM ET
CU Events Center
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

0-0  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
BUFFALOES
100%
BOBCATS --
BUFFALOES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 BuffaloesCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

34.5%

Buffaloes Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COLO +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

MTST By 1-7 points

27.4%

MTST By 8-14 points

21.6%

COLO By 1-7 points

20.1%

COLO By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
MONTANA STATE
62
COLORADO
Simulated Score
65
MONTANA STATE
78
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buffaloes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Buffaloes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 MTST @ COLO 78 - 84
Nov 9, 2021 MTST @ COLO 90 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.1% more
Montana State: 4.7 vs Colorado: 2.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Montana State: 45.5% vs Colorado: 41.9%
Turnovers (L5) +38.5% more
Colorado: 13.0 vs Montana State: 9.4
Rebounding (L5) +22.8% more
Colorado: 34.6 vs Montana State: 28.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 66.0 78
COLO Score 62.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 30.9 25.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.2 / 13.2 17.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.7 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 45.5 52.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 71.4 69.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 28.2 33.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.0 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 9.4 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
MTST
COLO
MTST
ML
61% 20-13
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
ATS
73% 24-9
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
TTL
45% 15-18
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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