CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
0-0 | Road
64
USC
TROJANSUSC
0-0 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
TROJANS
0%
MUSTANGS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
CP By 1-7 points
18.6%
CP By 8-14 points
8.0%
USC By 1-7 points
27.2%
USC By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
83
CAL POLY
USC
88
USC
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
63
CAL POLY
USC
82
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
CP @ USC
64 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+103.0% more
USC: 3.4
vs
Cal Poly: 1.7
Rebounding (L5)
+14.7% more
USC: 35.8
vs
Cal Poly: 31.2
Steals (L5)
+31.3% more
Cal Poly: 8.2
vs
USC: 5.6
Assists (L5)
+20.4% more
Cal Poly: 18.4
vs
USC: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
83.0
64
USC Score
88.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 45.3
35.0 / 27.0
Assists
14.6 / 18.4
24.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.4 / 1.7
11.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 48.6
46.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
67.0 / 73.8
68.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 31.2
44.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.6 / 8.2
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 12.3
14.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
USC
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
CP
USC
CP
ML
52%
16-15
58%
19-14
58%
18-13
58%
19-14
ATS
68%
21-10
64%
21-12
58%
18-13
58%
19-14
TTL
68%
21-10
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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