ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
0-0 | Road
58
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
0-0 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
100%
GAELS
0%
TOMMIES
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
STMN By 1-7 points
9.3%
STMN By 8-14 points
2.7%
SMC By 1-7 points
21.6%
SMC By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
66
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Saint Mary's
77
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
65
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Saint Mary's
78
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
STMN @ SMC
58 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+82.1% more
Saint Mary's: 4.2
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+34.8% more
Saint Mary's: 39.6
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 29.4
Steals (L5)
+48.4% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.6
vs
Saint Mary's: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+23.3% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 13.3
vs
Saint Mary's: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STMN Score
66.0
58
SMC Score
77.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
21.7 / 36.2
42.0 / 24.0
Assists
10.2 / 13.3
17.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.2 / 2.3
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.2 / 45.4
51.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 77.0
79.0 / 30.0
Rebounding
39.6 / 29.4
41.0 / 23.0
Steals
4.4 / 8.6
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 8.7
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
STMN
SMC
STMN
ML
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
82%
23-5
64%
21-12
ATS
62%
20-12
70%
23-10
83%
24-5
64%
21-12
TTL
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
