RIDER
BRONCSRID
0-0 | Road
53
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
0-0 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
BRONCS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Virginia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)
RID By 1-7 points
21.6%
RID By 8-14 points
10.7%
UVA By 1-7 points
27.2%
UVA By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Rider
59
RIDER
Virginia
62
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
Rider
49
RIDER
Virginia
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
RID @ UVA
53 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+67.0% more
Virginia: 7.4
vs
Rider: 4.4
Blocks (L5)
+46.9% more
Virginia: 4.3
vs
Rider: 2.9
Turnovers (L5)
+16.7% more
Virginia: 9.9
vs
Rider: 8.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Virginia: 34.9%
vs
Rider: 30.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RID Score
59.0
53
UVA Score
62.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 30.3
27.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.1 / 14.2
14.0 / 7.0
Blocks
4.3 / 2.9
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 46.8
47.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 75.0
56.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
25.1 / 34.0
49.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.4 / 4.4
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 8.5
6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
UVA
Advantage
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
RID
UVA
RID
ML
67%
24-12
72%
21-8
72%
26-10
66%
19-10
ATS
75%
27-9
72%
21-8
72%
26-10
66%
19-10
TTL
53%
19-17
62%
18-11
100%
36-0
100%
29-0
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