Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Stags @ Nittany Lions FAIR @ PSU

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

0-0  |  Road

68
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

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76
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
100%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
0%
STAGS --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Penn State)
StagsFAIR (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stags Cover

9.7%

Nittany Lions Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

FAIR By 1-7 points

6.8%

FAIR By 8-14 points

1.7%

PSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

PSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
68
FAIRFIELD
81
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
61
FAIRFIELD
79
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 FAIR @ PSU 68 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.8% more
Penn State: 16.5 vs Fairfield: 12.4
Blocks (L5) +29.1% more
Penn State: 5.5 vs Fairfield: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +20.4% more
Penn State: 13.6 vs Fairfield: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +15.3%
Penn State: 41.4% vs Fairfield: 26.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score 68.0 68
PSU Score 81.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.4 / 26.1 28.0 / 18.0
Assists 16.5 / 12.4 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.5 / 4.2 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 42.3 49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 75.8 60.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 33.2 39.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.1 / 9.7 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 11.3 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
FAIR
PSU
FAIR
ML
72% 23-9
55% 18-15
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
ATS
72% 23-9
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
TTL
66% 21-11
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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