Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Texans @ Mustangs TAR @ SMU

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

0-0  |  Road

76
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

0-0  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
TEXANS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (SMU)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

42.1%

Mustangs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

TAR By 1-7 points

23.0%

TAR By 8-14 points

12.2%

SMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SMU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
65
TARLETON STATE
67
SMU
Simulated Score
62
TARLETON STATE
78
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 TAR @ SMU 76 - 96
Nov 4, 2024 TAR @ SMU 62 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +81.3% more
SMU: 16.7 vs Tarleton State: 9.2
Steals (L5) +53.0% more
SMU: 9.2 vs Tarleton State: 6.0
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
SMU: 35.7 vs Tarleton State: 30.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.2%
SMU: 37.8% vs Tarleton State: 23.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 65.0 76
SMU Score 67.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 23.6 39.0 / 39.0
Assists 16.7 / 9.2 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 41.6 56.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 65.2 / 67.0 79.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 30.2 31.0 / 30.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.0 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 14.4 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR Advantage
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
TAR
SMU
TAR
ML
59% 20-14
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
ATS
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
TTL
56% 19-15
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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