Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Bulls USM @ BUF

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

0-0  |  Road

79
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 6:30 PM ET
Alumni Arena
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BULLSBUF

0-0  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
📊
BULLS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Southern Miss)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 BullsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

65.5%

Bulls Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-7 points

27.4%

USM By 8-14 points

21.6%

BUF By 1-7 points

20.1%

BUF By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
72
SOUTHERN MISS
68
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
70
SOUTHERN MISS
75
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 USM @ BUF 79 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +16.4% more
Southern Miss: 4.0 vs Buffalo: 3.3
Steals (L5) +13.0% more
Southern Miss: 6.8 vs Buffalo: 5.9
Turnovers (L5) +10.0% more
Buffalo: 13.6 vs Southern Miss: 12.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Buffalo: 32.3% vs Southern Miss: 27.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 72.0 79
BUF Score 68.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 27.3 40.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.0 / 12.7 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.0 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 39.7 45.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 74.4 69.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 35.3 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.8 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 12.4 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
BUF
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
BUF Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
USM
BUF
USM
ML
45% 14-17
53% 18-16
45% 14-17
73% 24-9
ATS
55% 17-14
59% 20-14
45% 14-17
74% 25-9
TTL
48% 15-16
68% 23-11
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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