NIAGARA
PURPLE EAGLESNIA
0-0 | Road
63
DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
0-0 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
DUKES
0%
PURPLE EAGLES
--
DUKES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Duquesne)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUQ -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)
NIA By 1-7 points
16.9%
NIA By 8-14 points
6.8%
DUQ By 1-7 points
26.8%
DUQ By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Niagara
66
NIAGARA
Duquesne
72
DUQUESNE
Simulated Score
Niagara
68
NIAGARA
Duquesne
75
DUQUESNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dukes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dukes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dukes (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Dukes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
NIA @ DUQ
63 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+115.4% more
Duquesne: 4.1
vs
Niagara: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+54.6% more
Duquesne: 7.6
vs
Niagara: 4.9
Turnovers (L5)
+19.5% more
Duquesne: 14.5
vs
Niagara: 12.2
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Duquesne: 34.2
vs
Niagara: 30.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIA Score
66.0
63
DUQ Score
72.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 43.1
42.0 / 14.0
Assists
12.7 / 12.2
18.0 / 6.0
Blocks
4.1 / 1.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 47.2
56.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
68.9 / 71.6
77.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 30.9
32.0 / 25.0
Steals
7.6 / 4.9
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 12.2
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0
(26.7%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
DUQ
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
DUQ
Advantage
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.7
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUQ
NIA
DUQ
NIA
ML
53%
17-15
55%
16-13
58%
18-13
72%
21-8
ATS
69%
22-10
69%
20-9
58%
18-13
72%
21-8
TTL
50%
16-16
55%
16-13
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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