Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Wolves @ Bobcats ARST @ OHIO

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

1-0  |  Road

89
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Convocation Center (OH)
View Odds Details →

OHIO

BOBCATSOHIO

0-1  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
RED WOLVES --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ohio)
Red WolvesARST (-3.5) 0 BobcatsOHIO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wolves Cover

46.0%

Bobcats Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OHIO -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

ARST By 1-7 points

24.3%

ARST By 8-14 points

13.7%

OHIO By 1-7 points

26.2%

OHIO By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
ARKANSAS STATE
39
OHIO
Simulated Score
70
ARKANSAS STATE
75
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.0 Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u159.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 ARST @ OHIO 89 - 85
Feb 10, 2024 OHIO @ ARST 87 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.9% more
Ohio: 9.8 vs Arkansas State: 8.0
Free Throw % (L5) +4.9%
Ohio: 75.8% vs Arkansas State: 70.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Ohio: 46.7% vs Arkansas State: 42.7%
Blocks (L5) +47.8% more
Arkansas State: 3.6 vs Ohio: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 38.0 89
OHIO Score 39.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 34.8 31.0 / 37.0
Assists 11.1 / 15.6 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.9 / 3.6 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 42.7 49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 70.9 68.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 38.7 25.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.7 / 6.6 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 8.0 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
OHIO
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
OHIO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
ARST
OHIO
ARST
ML
65% 20-11
48% 15-16
63% 19-11
53% 16-14
ATS
68% 21-10
58% 18-13
63% 19-11
53% 16-14
TTL
61% 19-12
61% 19-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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