MERCER
BEARSMER
0-0 | Road
61
TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERSTENN
0-0 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
VOLUNTEERS
0%
BEARS
--
VOLUNTEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TENN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)
MER By 1-7 points
24.3%
MER By 8-14 points
13.7%
TENN By 1-7 points
26.2%
TENN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
63
MERCER
Tennessee
64
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Mercer
60
MERCER
Tennessee
85
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Volunteers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Volunteers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Volunteers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Volunteers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
MER @ TENN
61 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+48.4% more
Tennessee: 2.8
vs
Mercer: 1.9
Assists (L5)
+32.8% more
Tennessee: 14.2
vs
Mercer: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Tennessee: 76.4%
vs
Mercer: 72.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Tennessee: 41.3%
vs
Mercer: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
63.0
61
TENN Score
64.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 28.3
41.0 / 21.0
Assists
14.2 / 10.7
19.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.9
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 39.4
49.0 / 30.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 72.4
60.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
33.7 / 39.2
54.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.9 / 6.4
2.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 11.6
19.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
TENN
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
TENN
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
MER
TENN
MER
ML
46%
17-20
55%
17-14
64%
21-12
71%
22-9
ATS
54%
20-17
58%
18-13
64%
21-12
71%
22-9
TTL
76%
28-9
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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