Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Thunder NO @ OKC

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

0-5  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sun, Nov 2 • 3:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

6-0  |  Home

137
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PELICANS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
205.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oklahoma City)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

38.2%

Thunder Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

NO By 1-7 points

21.6%

NO By 8-14 points

10.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
101
NEW ORLEANS
104
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
110
NEW ORLEANS
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+13) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 205.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 NO @ OKC 95 - 104
Nov 17, 2025 OKC @ NO 126 - 109
Nov 2, 2025 NO @ OKC 106 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 OKC @ NO 115 - 100
Feb 10, 2025 NO @ OKC 101 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.9% more
New Orleans: 4.5 vs Oklahoma City: 3.0
Assists (L5) +33.8% more
New Orleans: 6.9 vs Oklahoma City: 4.5
Rebounding (L5) +30.5% more
New Orleans: 13.4 vs Oklahoma City: 9.3
Steals (L5) +21.6% more
New Orleans: 2.6 vs Oklahoma City: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 101.0 106
OKC Score 104.0 137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.2 / 35.3 42.0 / 40.0
Assists 4.5 / 6.9 33.0 / 26.0
Blocks 0.8 / 1.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 45.7 56.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 16.2 / 23.1 88.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 9.3 / 13.4 42.0 / 38.0
Steals 2.1 / 2.6 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 3.0 / 4.5 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
NO
OKC
NO
ML
70% 80-34
62% 98-61
48% 46-49
58% 48-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
68% 107-51-1
48% 46-49
58% 48-35
TTL
67% 76-38
75% 119-40
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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