Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Raptors MEM @ TOR

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

3-3  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sun, Nov 2 • 6:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

2-4  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

75.8%

Raptors Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

26.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

25.3%

TOR By 1-7 points

15.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
115
MEMPHIS
108
TORONTO
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
112
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u238.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u238.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 TOR @ MEM 128 - 96
Nov 2, 2025 MEM @ TOR 104 - 117
Feb 5, 2025 MEM @ TOR 138 - 107
Dec 26, 2024 TOR @ MEM 126 - 155
Jan 22, 2024 MEM @ TOR 108 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.6% more
Memphis: 1.2 vs Toronto: 0.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
Memphis: 3.6 vs Toronto: 3.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Memphis: 30.1% vs Toronto: 26.0%
Steals (L5) +43.0% more
Toronto: 2.0 vs Memphis: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 115.0 104
TOR Score 108.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.0 / 30.1 30.0 / 31.0
Assists 5.7 / 5.0 32.0 / 24.0
Blocks 0.8 / 1.2 7.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 54.9 / 49.6 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 15.2 / 16.2 80.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 9.4 / 8.1 49.0 / 41.0
Steals 2.0 / 1.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 3.2 / 3.6 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MEM
TOR
MEM
ML
55% 57-47
57% 59-44
55% 48-39
50% 41-41
ATS
61% 62-40-2
63% 65-38
55% 48-39
50% 41-41
TTL
60% 62-42
70% 71-31-1
100% 87-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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