ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
3-3 | Road
109
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
3-3 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
HAWKS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
25.3%
CLE By 1-7 points
15.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Cleveland
108
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
107
ATLANTA
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-7)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u230.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
u230.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
CLE @ ATL
102 - 124
Apr 8, 2026
ATL @ CLE
116 - 122
Nov 28, 2025
CLE @ ATL
123 - 130
Nov 2, 2025
ATL @ CLE
109 - 117
Jan 30, 2025
ATL @ CLE
115 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+11.9% more
Atlanta: 8.5
vs
Cleveland: 7.5
Blocks (L5)
+9.1% more
Atlanta: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 1.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Atlanta: 15.5%
vs
Cleveland: 13.9%
Steals (L5)
+43.0% more
Cleveland: 2.4
vs
Atlanta: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
115.0
109
CLE Score
108.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 28.6
35.0 / 26.0
Assists
5.4 / 5.2
30.0 / 28.0
Blocks
1.1 / 1.2
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 42.8
41.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
13.9 / 15.5
94.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
7.5 / 8.5
44.0 / 46.0
Steals
2.4 / 1.7
12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
3.3 / 3.3
18.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATL
CLE
ATL
ML
60%
69-46
50%
52-52
56%
55-44
55%
48-40
ATS
67%
75-37-3
53%
55-48-1
56%
55-44
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
68-47
53%
55-48-1
100%
99-0
100%
88-0
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