TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
5-4-2 | Road
4
UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
8-3-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
J.J. Moser
#90 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Karel Vejmelka
#70 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Karel Vejmelka | None-None | 3.06 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.06
--
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
MAMMOTH
0%
LIGHTNING
--
MAMMOTH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around UTA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
UTA By 1 goal
19.7%
UTA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Utah
3
UTAH
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Utah
4
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mammoth
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mammoth
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mammoth (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Mammoth (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 26, 2026
UTA @ TB
0 - 2
Nov 2, 2025
TB @ UTA
4 - 2
Mar 27, 2025
UTA @ TB
0 - 8
Mar 22, 2025
TB @ UTA
4 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+19.0% more
Utah: 4.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.9
Power Play % (L5)
+17.3%
Utah: 30.8%
vs
Tampa Bay: 13.5%
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.6%
Utah: 45.9%
vs
Tampa Bay: 44.3%
Hits (L5)
+19.4% more
Tampa Bay: 19.1
vs
Utah: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
2.0
4
UTA Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.0 / 14.4
13.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
45.9 / 44.3
55.7 / 44.3
Hits
15.4 / 19.1
19.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
3082.0 / 1348.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.3 / 30.8
27.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 3.9
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
TB
UTA
TB
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
TTL
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
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