HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
2-2 | Road
128
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
3-3 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
CELTICS
100%
ROCKETS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
HOU By 1-7 points
27.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
23.0%
BOS By 1-7 points
18.6%
BOS By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
108
HOUSTON
Boston
103
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Boston
106
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u225.5
Loss
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
BOS @ HOU
114 - 93
Nov 1, 2025
HOU @ BOS
128 - 101
Jan 27, 2025
HOU @ BOS
114 - 112
Jan 3, 2025
BOS @ HOU
109 - 86
Jan 21, 2024
BOS @ HOU
116 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+62.6% more
Houston: 4.9
vs
Boston: 1.8
Rebounding (L5)
+58.4% more
Houston: 21.1
vs
Boston: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+58.2% more
Houston: 9.7
vs
Boston: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+56.8% more
Houston: 7.4
vs
Boston: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
108.0
128
BOS Score
103.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.8 / 32.6
32.0 / 66.0
Assists
4.1 / 9.7
24.0 / 30.0
Blocks
1.4 / 2.0
2.0 / 11.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 44.2
39.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
15.5 / 36.5
100.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
8.8 / 21.1
36.0 / 53.0
Steals
1.8 / 4.9
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
3.2 / 7.4
10.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
HOU
BOS
HOU
ML
57%
61-46
61%
69-44
53%
47-41
59%
51-35
ATS
59%
61-43-3
62%
70-43
53%
47-41
59%
51-35
TTL
56%
60-47
51%
58-55
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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