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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

2-3  |  Road

110
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 10:00 PM ET
Arena CDMX
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

3-2  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
MAVERICKS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
205.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

46.0%

Pistons Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

DET By 1-7 points

24.3%

DET By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
103
DALLAS
102
DETROIT
Simulated Score
118
DALLAS
108
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pistons (+8) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.5 Loss
Proj Total: 205.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 18, 2025 DET @ DAL 114 - 116
Nov 1, 2025 DAL @ DET 110 - 122
Mar 21, 2025 DET @ DAL 117 - 123
Jan 31, 2025 DAL @ DET 102 - 117
Apr 12, 2024 DET @ DAL 107 - 89
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.9%
Dallas: 40.1% vs Detroit: 31.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.5%
Dallas: 23.2% vs Detroit: 20.7%
Blocks (L5) +73.0% more
Detroit: 2.8 vs Dallas: 1.6
Assists (L5) +8.7% more
Detroit: 8.1 vs Dallas: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 103.0 110
DET Score 102.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 40.1 38.0 / 36.0
Assists 8.1 / 7.4 29.0 / 23.0
Blocks 2.8 / 1.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 39.1 49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 20.7 / 23.2 68.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 13.4 / 13.4 47.0 / 43.0
Steals 2.6 / 2.7 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 4.8 / 5.0 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
DAL
DET
DAL
ML
55% 64-53
62% 63-39
49% 47-49
54% 44-37
ATS
53% 60-54-3
67% 68-34
49% 47-49
54% 44-37
TTL
60% 70-46-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 96-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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